Friday, July 29, 2011

3 Things To Know Before Trading

3 Things To Know Before TradingStocks were lower throughout Asia. Australia was off by about 0.9%, the Nikkei lost two thirds of a percent, the Hang Seng fell 0.6% and Shanghai lost a quarter percent. The same is true in Europe this morning, with the Dax and Footsie each down by 0.9% or so. US stock futures are down by almost a half percent.

*The June reading of China’s Leading Economic Index fell a fraction from the month before to 101.76; the lowest level in a couple of years.

*There were several bits of data released in
Japan overnight. The June reading of their Jobless Rate
rose one tenth to 4.6%, as expected. Also, Overall Household Spending was down
4.3% on an annualized basis in June, almost twice the expected decline. The June
reading of the Consumer Price Index, ex-fresh food, was down two tenths from the
month before to an annualized rate of +0.4%, the decline was only forecast to be
one tenth. However, the July reading of that same inflation measure for Tokyo rose by three tenths to +0.4% year on year, it had
been expected to be +0.2%. The preliminary June reading of Industrial Production
was up 3.9% month on month, six tenths short of the estimate.



*Spain’s Parliament has been dissolved, a vote
is scheduled for late November. Moody’s has placed Spain’s Aa2 rating on review
for possible downgrade.



*The July estimate of the Eurozone Consumer
Price Index is +2.5% year on year, two tenths less than expected.



*The June reading of German Retail Sales was
almost four times better than expected, +6.3% month on month; it is the biggest
monthly gain on record in the reunified country’s statistics since 1991.



*UK house prices were up 0.2% on a month on
month basis in July, according to Nationwide; this had been expected to fall two
tenths.



*The House yesterday did not vote on Boehner’s
debt/deficit legislation, an apparent concession to a lack of votes. The bill is
tentatively scheduled to be voted on today; that’s the plan anyway.



*The first
look at Q2 GDP is due out at 7:30am CDT. Headline growth is forecast to be +1.8%
on a quarter on quarter annualized basis and the estimate for Q2 Personal
Consumption is expected to rise 0.8%. The Q2 GDP Price Deflator is forecast to
be +2.0% and the Core PCE inflation measure is expected to be +2.3% on a quarter
on quarter annualized basis. Also released at this time is the annual revisions
for previously released GDP reports. The Q2 reading of the Employment Cost Index
is also set to be released at 7:30am, it is expected to be +0.5%. The July
reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
will be released to the public at 8:45am CDT, but will be out three minutes
earlier for subscribers to the report, it is expected to be down about one point
on the month at 60.0. The final July reading of consumer sentiment from the
University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CDT, it is
expected to be 64.0, or up two tenths from the month’s preliminary result; it
was 71.5 in June.



*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today
that are due to mature between 1/31/14 and 6/30/15; the results of the operation
will be announced just after 10:00am CDT.



*Atlanta Fed boss Lockhart and St. Louis Fed’s Bullard are scheduled to speak about monetary policy at
2:15pm CDT at a conference in Wyoming.

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