Thursday, November 17, 2011

3 Things To Know Before Trading

3 Things To Know Before TradingAustin, TX 11/17/11 (StreetBeat) --*Stocks were broadly lower in Asian trade. Shanghai fell two and a half percent, the Hang Seng dropped two percent and both the Nikkei and Australia fell about 0.9%. European indexes are mixed this morning, with the Dax and Footsie both off by a slight fraction. US stock futures are down about a half percent as I write.

*The Bank of Japan kept their policy and rates steady this morning, as expected.

*The October reading of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index matched the forecast at +0.3% on a monthly basis and +3.0% year on year.

*Italian 10 Year yield remains above seven percent this morning, little changed from yesterday afternoon, but only because the ECB appears to be buying this debt more aggressively today in an attempt to support the market. Interim PM Monti has unveiled his selections for the ministerial posts in his government; said to be all technocrats and no politicians.

*The September reading of the UK Unemployment Rate rose two tenths from the month before to 8.3%, one tenth more than forecast. The net change in the number of jobless claimants was less than expected at 5.3k.

*The Bank of England Inflation Report says that CPI is more likely to be below two percent than above that level in two years time. It also says the lack of a credible euro crisis plan is the biggest risk to the UK.

*US mortgage applications were down 10.0% in the week ended November 11, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; the purchase component fell 2.3% in the week and Refis were down 12.2%.

*The October reading of the Consumer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CST. The headline CPI is expected to be unchanged on a month on month basis and the estimate for the Core rate is +0.1% on the month. The annualized CPI rates are forecast to be +3.,7% and +2.1% respectively. The Treasury is scheduled to release at 8:00am CST the September net change in the foreign holdings of long-term US securities, the TIC data; it is expected to show an increase of $50.0 billion. The Fed will release at 8:15am CST the October readings on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Production is expected to be up 0.4% from the month before and Utilization is forecast to be up two tenths on the month at 77.6%. The NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 9:00am CST, it is expected to be steady on the month at 18.

*The weekly report on energy inventories is due out at 9:30am CST. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to decline 1.2 million barrels, Gasoline inventories are expected to fall 1.0 million and the estimate for Distillates is -2.35 million.

*The Fed is scheduled to sell Treasuries today that are due to mature between 11/15/13 and 2/28/14; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*Richmond Fed boss Lacker is set to speak on credit allocation at 10:15am CST and Boston Fed’s Rosengren will talk about the economy at 11:45am CST.

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