Friday, June 1, 2012

3 Things to Know Before Trading

3 Things to Know Before TradingPalm Beach, FL 6/1/12 (StreetBeat) -- Stocks were generally weaker in Asian trade. The Nikkei fell 1.2%, the Hang Seng was down about 0.4% and Australia slipped 0.3%; but Shanghai added a very slight fraction. European indexes are mostly lower this morning, most notable is the Dax which is off by more than two percent, the Footsie is down 0.7%. US stock futures are down one percent or so as I write.

*The May reading of China’s manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index fell three points to 50.4, worse than the estimate for 52.0; it is the lowest mark of the calendar year and the biggest one month decline in a couple of years.

*The Irish vote on the fiscal compact is said to look like an approval, but final results are not yet out.

*The final May reading of Germany’s manufacturing sector PMI was revised up two tenths to 45.2. Spain’s manufacturing PMI however was worse for wear, down to 42.0 from 43.5 the month before. Related report has the German FinMin supporting the EU on giving Spain more time for making its deficit cuts.

*The May reading of Switzerland’s manufacturing sector PMI was down 1.5 points from the month before to 45.4, but it had been forecast to increase a half point.

*The May reading of the UK’s manufacturing sector PMI was down sharply on the month, down 4.3 points to 45.9, when only a fractional drop was expected; it is the lowest mark since May 2009.

*The May reading of the Employment Situation Report is due out at 7:30am CDT. The Unemployment Rate is expected to be steady at 8.1%; total Non-farm Payrolls are forecast to be +150k and the estimate for the net change in private sector payrolls is +164k; the Average Hourly Wages are expected to be +0.2% month on month and to be +1.8% annualized; and finally the Average Work Week forecast is steady at 34.5 hours. Also due out at 7:30am is the April reading of Personal Income. The expectation for Income is +0.3% month on month and the estimate for Personal Spending is also +0.3%. The PCE Deflator component is forecast to be 1.9% year on year, two tenths below the level seen the month before. The PCE Core reading of inflation is expected to be +0.2% on a monthly basis. And then, before you know it, here comes the final May reading of the newly minted Markit US PMI, the one with the distinctive 7:58am CDT release time; May preliminary result was 53.9; no estimate. The May reading of the ISM manufacturing Index is due out at 9:00am CDT, it is expected to be 53.8, or one point lower than it was in April; the Prices Paid component is expected to decline by four points on the month to 57.0. Also due out at 9:00am CDT is the April reading of Construction Spending, it is forecast to be +0.4% month on month.

*The automakers are set to release their May sales results today; a fractional increase in Total Sales to 14.50 million units annualized is the forecast.

*The Fed is scheduled to sell Treasuries today that are due to mature between 9/15/12 and 4/30/13; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CDT.

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