3 Things to Know Before Trading Today

*Stocks were again mixed. The Nikkei was among the weakest on the day with a decline of more than one percent, the Hang Seng and Australia were both down about two thirds of a percent, but Shanghai was up a slight fraction. European indexes are currently mixed as well; the Footsie is down about 1.2%, but the Dax is trading up by about 0.1%. US stock futures are essentially unchanged.

*The December reading of Japan’s Jobless Rate unexpectedly fell two tenths to 4.9%, it had been forecast to be steady on the month. However, Overall Household Spending was down 3.3% on a year over year basis, more than five times the expected decline.

*The December reading of Japan’s Consumer Price Index, ex-fresh food, is -0.4% on a year over year basis, one tenth less deflation than expected. The January reading of that same inflation measure for Tokyo was -0.2%, only half the deflation level seen the month before.

*The December reading of Japan’s Retail Trade is -4.1% on a month on month basis, about triple the expected shortfall; the year over year rate is -2.0%, well below the estimate for a gain of 0.6%.

*German Finance Ministry Vice Chancellor Westerwelle, in an interview in Le Monde, says that creditors should pay in bailouts and that he sees no need to modify the EFSF.

*Treasury’s Geithner spoke earlier today in Davos. Among other things he said he is confident that the US expansion is sustainable, but that growth is not strong enough to bring down unemployment rapidly. Also noted that US has a tough set of fiscal choices to make, but he thinks that the US is better placed than some others to achieve reforms.

*The first look at Q4 GDP is due out at 7:30am CST. Headline GDP is expected to show a quarter on quarter annualized growth rate of +3.5%; the estimate for Q4 Personal Consumption is +4.0%; the Q4 GDP Deflator is forecast to be +1.6%; and the estimate for the PCE Core inflation measure, quarter on quarter annualized basis, is +0.4%. Also due out at 7:30am is the Q4 reading of the Employment Cost Index, it is expected to be +0.5%. The final January reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CST, it is forecast to increase six tenths from the preliminary result of the month to 73.3; it was 74.5 in December.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/18 and 11/15/20; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

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