Wednesday, February 29, 2012

3 Things to Consider While Trading Today

3 Things to Consider While Trading TodayShawshank, VA 2/29/2012 (StreetBeat) – Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. Australia was up 0.8% and the Hang Seng gained a half percent, but the Nikkei was flat on the day and Shanghai fell almost one percent. European indexes are mostly higher this morning, with the Dax up about a half percent while the Footsie is unchanged on the day. US stock futures are up a slight fraction as I write.

*The January reading of Australian Retail Sales was +0.3% on a month on month basis, matching the expectations.

*The preliminary January reading of Japan’s Industrial Production is +2.0% on a monthly basis, a half percent more than forecast.

*The ECB announced earlier this morning that the 3-Year LTRO liquidity facility was tapped for EU529.5 billion; 800 banks bid. The first LTRO totaled EU489.2 billion and had 523 bidders. It is said that today’s LTRO was more than the average estimate, but the estimate that I most trusted said the total would be within a range of EU200 billion and EU800 billion; nailed it!!!

*The February reading of Germany’s Unemployment Rate is 6.8%. While that was steady on the month as was forecast, that is from a revised higher January reading. Also, the net change in the number of unemployed was 0k, it had been expected to fall 5k.

*The January reading of Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index was much more deflationary that expected at -0.7% month on month and -0.9% annualized.

*In January there were 58.7k UK mortgage approvals, says the Bank of England. That was up by almost 4k from the month before and is the highest result since December 2009.

*US mortgage applications were down 0.3% in the week ended February 24, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for purchase were up 8.2%, but those for refinancing fell 2.2%.

*The first revision to Q4 GDP is due out at 7:30am CST. All of the main components, but one, are expected to be unchanged from the initial report: GDP steady at +2.8%; Personal Consumption is expected to be revised down one tenth to +1.9%; GDP Price Deflator unrevised at +0.4% and the quarterly rate of the PCE Core steady at +1.1%. The February reading of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is due out at 8:45am CST, of course the subscribers will get the data three minutes earlier. The Chicago PMI is expected to be 61.0, up a bit from the January result of 60.2.

*Fed boss Bernanke will present his Humphrey/Hawkins testimony on the economy and monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee this morning. We should get newswire headlines about his text at 9:00am CST. Extensive Q and A will follow his presentation.

*The weekly report on energy inventories is due to be released at 9:30am CST. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to increase 1.1 million barrels, Gasoline inventories are expected to decline 425k and the estimate for Distillates is -750k.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/36 and 2/15/42; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST. (The New York Fed will release the Fed’s March calendar for Treasury buying and selling at 1:00pm CST.)

*The Fed’s Beige Book is set to be released at 1:00pm CST.

*Other Fed speak scheduled for today includes: Dallas Fed’s Fisher talks about fiscal reforms in Mexico at 9:25am CST and Philly Fed boss Plosser will give a speech about the economy at noon CST.

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