Tuesday, February 14, 2012

3 Things To Know Before Trading

3 Things To Know Before TradingTallahassee, FL 2/14/12 (StreetBeat) -- Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. Australia was down one percent and Shanghai fell 0.3%, but the Nikkei added 0.6% and the Hang Seng was up a slight fraction. European indexes are generally higher this morning, with the Dax up a third of a percent and the Footsie better by a slight fraction. US stock indexes are essentially unchanged as I write.

*The Bank of Japan kept its key overnight rate steady at zero to 0.10% and they kept their credit loan program unchanged at Y35 trillion. But they increased their asset purchase fund to Y30 trillion from Y20 trillion. BoJ Governor Shirakawa made clear the extension of the asset purchase fund will be put to work buying a sizable amount of JGBs.

*Because of their susceptibility to “growing financial and macroeconomic risks” from the euro area debt crisis, Moody’s yesterday afternoon lowered the credit rating and/or outlook for nine European countries. Moody’s lowered ratings for Spain, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia. The rating outlook was changed to negative for Austria, France and the UK.

*The February reading of the Euro Zone’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment was much improved, up to -8.1 from -32.5 the month before.

*The February reading of Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment was also much better than expected, rising to +5.4 from -21.6 the month before; it had been forecast to be -11.8. The ZEW Current Situation component was up twelve points on the month to 40.3, ten points more than expected.

*The Q4 reading of Greek GDP was -7.0% year on year, on a not seasonally adjusted basis; worse than the -5.0% GDP in Q3. Portuguese GDP was -2.7% year on year in Q4, matching the expectation, but down from -1.8% in the previous quarter.

*A meeting of the Greek government cabinet has been postponed by an hour to 8:00am CST.

*The January reading of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was up one tenth from the month before to 93.9, short of the expected result of 95.0; but that is the fifth consecutive increase for the index, the best streak in several years.

*The January reading of Retail Sales is due out at 7:30am CST. Headline Sales are expected to be +0.8% month on month and the estimate for Sales Ex-autos is +0.5%. Also set for release at 7:30am is the January reading of the Import Price Index, forecast to be +0.3% on the month. The December reading of Business Inventories is due out at 9:00am CST, it is expected to be up 0.5% from the month before.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/20 and 11/15/21; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*There are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar today, including: Philly Fed’s Plosser, who will talk about the economy at 7:45am CST and Atlanta Fed boss Lockhart, who will discuss the economic outlook at 4:40pm CST.

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