Friday, July 13, 2012

3 Things to Know Before Trading

3 Things to Know Before TradingPalm Beach, FL 7/13/12 (StreetBeat) -- Stocks were mixed in Asian trade, but the Hang Seng gained a third of a percent and so too did Australia, but the Nikkei and Shanghai were flat on the day. Europe is also mixed this morning, with the Dax up about one percent, the Footsie better by a half percent, while Spain and Italy are lower on the day. US stock futures are up about a third of a percent as I write.

*China reports that their Q2 GDP slowed to 7.6% on a year on year basis; down from 8.1% the quarter before and one tenth under the forecast. The growth rate is the lowest since Q1 2009; more easing is expected. Also overnight were reports on June Retail Sales, 13.7% year on year or a tenth better than expected, and June Industrial Production at 9.5%, which was a few tenths less than the estimate.

*The final May reading of Japan’s Industrial Production was revised down three tenths from the previous release to -3.4% on a month on month basis.

*The June reading of Switzerland’s Producer and Import Prices is -0.3% month on month, a tenth less deflationary than expected, but the year on year rate, -2.2% matched the forecast.

*Moody’s downgraded Italy’s credit rating this morning by two notches to Baa2 from A3, outlook is negative.

*JP Morgan reported a lot of Q2 data this morning; their eps ex-this and that could be +$1.09, or +67 cents; it depends. But the estimate was for a gain of 76 cents. CEO Dimon says there is a Q2 pre-tax loss from the London Whale trade of $4.4 billion, if this is all in addition to the Q1 loss from this trade than the hit thus far is $6 billion, but maybe not. The company also says it will restate Q1 net by $459 million.

*The June reading of the Producer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CDT. The headline PPI is expected to be -0.5% on a month on month basis and the estimate for the Core PPI is +0.2% on the month. The preliminary July reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CDT, it is forecast to be 73.5, up three tenths from the final June result.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/36 and 5/15/42; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CDT.

*Atlanta Fed boss Lockhart is set to speak about the economy at 12:20pm CDT.

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