Stocks were little changed throughout most of Asia. The Hang Seng had the biggest move at the close with a loss of about one percent, but Shanghai was unchanged on the session, Australia was down a slight fraction and the Nikkei added just a slight fraction. European indexes are generally higher on the day, but the Dax is up just a few points and the Footsie is lower by just a few points. US stock futures are essentially unchanged.*The Reserve Bank of Australia noticed that consumer caution was easing price pressures, according to the minutes from their latest policy meeting, and they said that retailers were reporting “highly value conscious” consumers. But there were more signs of “expected strong expansion” in the resource sector, but all said and done there say medium term inflation outlook is mostly unchanged.
*The January reading of China’s Consumer Price Index showed that the annualized rate was up three tenths on the month to 4.9%, about a half point less than forecast, but apparently right on the whisper. Also released last night was the January reading of China’s Producer Price Index, this was 6.6% annualized, four tenths more than forecast.
*The final December reading of Japan’s Industrial Production was revised up a couple of tenths to +3.3% on a month on month basis. The annualized rate was also revised up three tenths to +4.9%.
*The Bank of Japan left their key interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, as expected. Governor Shirakawa said they were keeping a careful watch on the moves in long-term rates, but that the BoJ’s zero rate pledge helps to contain bond yields.
*The Q4 reading of German GDP was +4.0% on a year over year basis, one tenth under the forecast,
*The February reading of Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment was up only three tenths to 15.7, well under the estimate for a rise up to 20.0, but it is still the highest level for the survey since last July. However the ZEW for Current Economic Conditions was up more than two points to 85.2, beating the estimate by a couple of points; a new high for the move and the best result since July 2007.
*The January reading of the UK Consumer Price Index was up one tenth on the month and +4.0% year over year, both readings matched the estimate. Although Governor King continued to maintain in his letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer that the rise in inflation is temporary, he did concede that there is a “great deal of uncertainty” about inflation and noted that there were “real differences of view” within the policy committee on the matter. This is the fifth consecutive month that King has been required to write his inflation letter to the Chancellor because the annualized inflation rate has been above their target and at some point these monthly notes will begin to look stale and pressure will build on the BOE to act.
*The weekly report on chain store sales from ICSC shows a decline of 1.4% on a week on week basis for the week ended February 12; the worst weekly result since early January. The Johnson Redbook report on the same thing is due out at 7:55am CST.
*There are three bits of data due out at 7:30am CST: the January reading of Retail Sales is expected to be up 0.5% on the month and Sales Ex-autos is forecast to be +0.5%; the January reading of the Import Price Index is expected to be +0.8%; and the February reading of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is forecast to rise to 15.00 from 11.92 the month before. The Treasury will announce at 8:00am CST the net change in December of the foreign holdings of US long-term securities, it is expected to be an increase of $40.0 billion. The December reading Business Inventories is due out at 9:00am CST, it is forecast to be +0.7%. Also due out at 9:00am is the NAHB Housing Market Index, expected to be steady on the month at 16.
*The BLS will report its annual revisions for the Consumer Price Index at some time this morning.
*There are two Fed speaker on the calendar for 9:00am; Cleveland Fed boss Pianalto will talk about economic conditions in her district and Governor Tarullo will testify on derivatives regulation.
*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/28/15 and 8/15/16; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.
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