3 Things to Know For Today's Trading

*Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. The Nikkei closed 0.8% lower and Australia was off a fraction, but Shanghai was up more than one percent and the Hang Seng added a half percent. The Kospi traded down two and a half percent on the open, but rose throughout the day to close down just 0.15% on the session. European indexes are generally higher on the day, with the Dax up about one and a quarter percent and the Footsie higher by about two thirds of a percent. US stock futures are up by about a quarter percent.

*The October reading of Japan’s Nationwide Department Store Sales were up 0.6% on a year over year basis, while that is not a big annualized sales gain it is the first positive result since February 2008.

*Ireland’s sovereign debt rating was lowered a notch by SP earlier today, and the rating agency warned that this downgrade could negatively impact Irish banks. Additionally PM Cowen said that a bailout package could total about EU85 billion.

*The November reading of Germany’s IFO index of the Business Climate rose about a point and a half to 109.3; well above the expectation for a steady reading and it is a record high for the series which began in 1991.

*The first revision of the UK Q3 GDP was steady at +0.8% on a quarter on quarter basis and +2.8% year on year.

*US mortgage applications were up 2.1% in the week ended November 19, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; applications for purchase were up big while those for refinancing were down.

*The October reading of Durable Goods Orders is due out at 7:30am CST. Headline Orders are forecast to rise 0.1% on a month on month basis and the estimate for Orders ex-transportation is +0.6%. Also due out at 7:30am is the October reading of Personal Income and Spending. Income is expected to increase 0.4% on the month and the forecast for Spending is +0.5%. The PCE Core inflation measure is expected to be unchanged on a month on month basis and +1.0% year on year. The weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims is also set to be released at 7:30, it is expected to be 435k. The final November reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is due out at 8:55am CST, it is expected to be, 69.5 or two tenths higher than the preliminary result. Due out at 9:00am CST is the October reading of New Home Sales, it is forecast to be 312k units at an annualized rate or +1.6% up from the month before.

*All of the energy inventory reports will be released today; the petroleum based items will be released at 9:30am CST and the Natural Gas is moved up a day because of Thanksgiving, it will be released at 10:00am CST. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to decline 1.62 million barrels, Gasoline inventories are expected to fall 923k and the estimate for Distillates is -1.15 million. The Natural Gas inventory report is expected to show a decline of 5 bcf.

*The Treasury plans to sell $29 billion 7 Year Notes today; the results of the auction will be announced just after noon CST.

3 Things to Know Before Trading

Stocks in Asian trade were generally weak in reaction to news of a military exchange between North and South Korea. The Nikkei managed a gain of almost one percent, but the Hang Seng lost 2.7%, Shanghai was lower by about two percent and Australia fell more than one percent. European indexes are also lower on the session. The Footsie is currently down about two thirds of a percent and the Dax is off a fraction, but Ireland is down about two percent and other Euro/peripherals are down one percent or more, as the debt spreads for these countries are again widening out from the German baseline. US stock futures are down about three quarters of a percent or so.

*North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire earlier today; at least two South Korean marines are said to be dead and several others have been injured on an island that is just off the west coast of the peninsula within disputed territorial waters. As is often the case when dealing with conflicts involving North Korea it is not clear what sparked the conflict, or for that matter if the problem will escalate.

*The final reading of Germany’s Q3 GDP was unrevised +0.7% on a quarter on quarter basis and +3.9% year on year; growth was driven by strong exports and personal consumption.

*The November reading of Germany’s manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index was up more than two points on the month to 58.9, well above the estimate for a fractional gain. The November reading of their service sector PMI also beat the forecast with a monthly gain of 2.6 points, it rose to 58.6..

*In October there were 30,766 loans for house purchase in the UK, according to the British Bankers Association, slightly under the estimate.

*The weekly report on chain store sales from ICSC will be released at 6:45am CST. The Johnson Redbook report on the same thing is due out at 7:55am CST.

*The first revision of the Q3 GDP is due out at 7:30am CST. Headline GDP is forecast to be revised up to 2.4% from the initial report of 2.0%. However the key Q3 Personal Consumption component is expected to be revised down one tenth to 2.5% and the GDP Price Deflator is expected to be unrevised at 2.3%. The Core PCE price measure is also expected to be unchanged at 0.8% on a quarter on quarter annualized basis. The October reading of Existing Home Sales is due out at 9:00am CST; Sales are forecast to fall 1.1% from the pace set the month before to an annualized rate of 4.48 million units.

*The November reading of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is due out at 9:00am CST, it is expected to improve one point on the month to 6.

*The FDIC will release their Q3 report on bank earnings at 9:00am CST.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy TIPS today that are due to mature between 7/15/12 and 2/15/40; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*The Treasury plans to sell $35 billion 5 Year Notes today; the results of the auction will be announced just after noon CST.

*The minutes from the November 2/3 FOMC meeting are due to be released at 1:00pm CST. In addition to the minutes the Fed will also release their Summary of Economic Projections, which will extend out to 2013 for the first time.

Insider Trading: Fed Hammer Coming Down

Rumbling in the NY Times and in many Hedge Fund circles has the Fed hammer coming down for insider trading. It seems logical that Fed officials would have a perp walk to bring in the holiday's!!! I hear the scope revolves around a research firm tipping valued clients while in ka-hoots with Goldman.

Those who have been around long enough know this was the gig for saleman prior to Reg FD, which leveled the research trading field and was a commission tool for salestraders in the 90's. I will have more on this as information breaks.

Federal authorities are at an advanced stage of insider trading investigations that could result in criminal charges or significant civil fines against Wall Street traders and executives, DealBook's Peter Lattman reports, citing a government official.

"We are far along in investigations of insider trading," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the inquiry was incomplete. It was unclear whether the government was conducting one sweeping investigation or looking into various smaller instances of what they suspected was insider trading.
One person briefed on the matter characterized the investigation as a "big case," saying it would likely result in arrests before the end of the new year, with the defendants numbering in the double digits. The person said that the investigation had to some extent grown out of an inquiry into the Galleon Group.

News of the investigations' advanced stages was reported on Friday night on The Wall Street Journal Web site. The article said that federal authorities could bring insider trading charges that "could ensnare consultants, investment bankers, hedge-fund and mutual-fund traders and analysts across the nation."
The government official familiar with the matter confirmed the outlines of The Journal's article, but would not say whether arrests were imminent or whether specific companies were targets.

Goldman Sachs is among the firms under scrutiny, according to a person briefed on the investigation who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The person said the inquiry involved several low-level Goldman employees, not executives.

5 Things To Know Before Trading

Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. The Nikkei was strong with a 0.9% gain and Australia added a third of a percent. But the Hang Seng lost a third of a percent and Shanghai was down a small fraction. Europe also has a mixed performance this morning; the Dax is about unchanged on the session, but the Footsie is off by more than a half percent, while Ireland and Spain are more than one percent lower on the day. US stock futures are essentially unchanged.

*On Friday, Hong Kong announced additional stamp duties on properties that are sold within two years and raised down payment requirements on high end homes. Earlier today the government announced that Hong Kong property prices were up 15% in the period from January to September; these prices were up thirty percent in 2009. There is some thinking that the tougher measures will have an immediate effect on transaction volume and estimates say the decline could be as much as 30% to 50% in the next few months. This pressured the Hang Seng property index in Monday’s trade and it fell 2.6%.

*Irish PM Cowen finally relented to EU/IMF pressure on Sunday and requested an aid package that may total as much at EU95 billion, details are still being worked out. The Irish government concession that aid would be necessary was seen as a humiliation for Cowen, with the country’s press stressing the coming austerity and some lawmakers calling for the PM’s resignation. Ruling coalition member, the Green Party, says they will quit the government after the budget and seek a new election as early as January. EU spokespersons such as Juncker say the decision was important to avoid credit market contagion, and yield spreads to German debt has narrowed in the wake of the announcement. But Moody’s says that a “multi-notch” downgrade for Ireland was a likely scenario. Additional help will come from the UK in the form of a bi-lateral loan, “to reflect the fact that we don’t want to be part of a permanent bailout mechanism for the euro” said Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne.

*The October reading of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due out at 7:30am CST, it is expected to be -0.30; it was -0.58 in September.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/18 and 11/15/20; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CDT.

*The Treasury plans to sell $35 billion 2 Year Notes today; the results of the auction will be announced just after noon CST.

*Minneapolis Fed boss Kocherlakota is scheduled to speak at 12:30pm CST; his topic is “Monetary Policy, Labor Markets and Uncertainty”.

5 Things To Know Before Trading

*Stocks in Asia were generally strong overnight. The Nikkei was among the best with a gain of two percent, the Hang Seng gained 1.8%, Shanghai added about one percent and Australia was up a third of a percent. European indexes are following suit, with both the Footsie and Dax currently higher by 1.4%. US stock futures are trading higher by about one percent.

*Japan’s cabinet office monthly economic report kept its assessment of the economy unchanged from the month before, noting that “economic movements appear to be pausing recently” and again saying that the economy is in a difficult situation because of things such as a “high unemployment rate”.

*The October reading of Switzerland’s Trade Balance was a larger surplus than expected at SF2.1 billion, as exports were up 6.2% on the month while imports increased only 1.9%.

*The October reading of UK Retail Sales was +0.5% on a month on month basis, one tenth better than forecast and a reversal of the 0.5% decline seen in September. However, sales were -0.1% on a year over year basis, a tenth under the estimate.

*Ireland has not yet asked for aid insists Irish Fin Min Lenihan, even as EU and IMF arrive in Dublin to discuss the debt situation, but he says it is possible they could accept an aid package for its banks, or that funds could be made available “but not drawn down”. Talks among the interested parties are ongoing.

*The weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims is due out at 7:30am CST, it is expected to be 441k. The November reading of the Philly Fed Business Activity Index is due out at 9:00am CST, it is forecast to improve four points on the month to 5.0. Also due out at 9:00am is the October reading of the Leading Economic Indicators, it is expected to be +0.5%.

*GM’s IPO was priced yesterday at $33, and the stock is set to trade today at the NYSE.

*The Mortgage Bankers Association is set to release some Q3 data on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at 9:00am CST.

*The weekly report on inventories of Natural Gas is due out at 9:30am CST, it is expected to show an increase of 7 bcf.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 5/31/13 and 11/15/14; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*The Treasury is scheduled to announce at 10:00am CST the details of next week’s auctions of 2 Year, 5 Year and 7 Year Notes.

*There are several Fed speakers on the calendar today: Governor Duke will testify to congress on foreclosures at 9:00am CST; Governor Warsh takes part in a panel discussion on “The Future of Financial Markets” at a Chicago Fed event at noon CST; Minneapolis Fed boss Kocherlakota will speak in Chicago at 12:30pm CST, his topic is “Monetary Policy Actions and Fiscal Policy Substitutes”; Cleveland Fed’s Pianalto will talk about “Current Economic and Monetary Policy Issues” in her hometown at 12:30pm CST; and Philly Fed’s Plosser is set to discuss “Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy” at the Cato Institute in DC at 3:30pm CST.

*A heads up for Friday at 4:15am CST; that’s when Fed boss Bernanke, ECB’s Trichet, Strauss-Kahn of the IMF and PBOC Governor Zhou will take part in an ECB conference in Frankfurt and discuss how the financial crisis has influenced their thinking and actions.

3 Things to Know Before Trading

*Stocks were generally weak in Asia, with some exceptions. The Hang Seng and Shanghai both fell two percent and Australia was down 1.6%. The Nikkei however managed a fractional gain. European indexes are mixed and not sharply changed on the session; The Dax is up about 0.3% but the Footsie is currently down 0.20%. US stock futures are up a fraction.

*The Q3 reading of Australia’s Wage Cost Index matched the forecast of +1.1% on a quarter on quarter basis; it is the highest result since Q4 2008.

*The final September reading of Japan’s Leading Economic Index was revised down 0.3 to 98.6; that’s the lowest result since February and the fourth decline in the last five months.

*The Bank of England policymakers were split in three ways, with seven voting for steady rates and levels of QE, one (Posen) in favor of more Q% and one (Sentence) in favor of hiking rates twenty five basis points, according to the minutes from their latest policy meeting. The majority is said to be ready to adjust policy in either direction as needed.

*The September reading of the UK Unemployment Rate was steady at 7.7%, as expected. In October the net change in the number of jobless claims fell 3.7k, a good surprise versus the expectation of +6.0k.

*Ireland is going to begin meetings with the EU and IMF tomorrow to see what can be done to solve the country’s debt crisis. Irish PM Cowen has been insisting they can handle the situation even as the EU, etc. continues to diplomatically insist they cannot. Earlier today LCH Clearnet raised the margin requirement for Irish bond trading to 30 percent of the net position, a move that raises the stakes in a real money way.

*US mortgage applications fell 14.4% in the week ended November 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, both key components, applications for purchase and refinancing were down on the week.

*The October reading of the Consumer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CST. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on a month on month basis and the estimate for Core CPI is +0.1%. The forecasts for the year on year measures are +1.3% and +0.7% respectively. The October reading of Housing Starts is also due out at 7:30am. Starts are expected to be 598k units at an annualized rate, or -2.0% from the month before; the estimate for Building Permits is 568k units annualized or +3.9% up from September’s rate.

*The weekly report on energy inventories is due out at 9:30am CST. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to fall 70k barrels, inventories of Gasoline are expected to decline 600k and the estimate for Distillates is -2.13 million.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/18 and 11/15/20; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*There are a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar today. Boston Fed’s Rosengren will talk at 7:00am CST and St. Louis Fed boss Bullard will speak at 8:15am CST.

5 Things To Know Before Trading

Stocks in Asian trade had varied results. Australia managed a quarter percent gain, but the Nikkei lost a third of a percent, the Hang Seng fell 1.4% and Shanghai was down four percent. Shanghai has now fallen more than nine percent from a seven month high mark set four days ago; concerns about additional tightening by the PBOC and rumors that authorities will institute price controls to keep a lid on inflation have weighed on the market. European indexes are broadly weaker this morning as debt concerns continue to be a factor. The Footsie is currently off by 1.5% and the Dax is down three quarters of a percent. US stock futures are down about two thirds of a percent.

*The Reserve Bank of Australia says that their recent tightening was “prudent” because of a shift in the balance of risks and because of what they see as a “gradual upward trend” in inflation over the medium term, according to the minutes from their November policy meeting. On the other had they see consumers as cautious and say retail discounting has been extensive. But the outlook for their resource industries is “very strong”.

*Foreign Direct Investment in China was up 7.9% on a year over year basis in October, to $7.66 billion. This was an up tick from the 6.1% annualized gain seen the month before, but was below the 10.4% estimate for October.

*The September reading of Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index was -0.9%, a decline that was almost double the estimate.

*The November reading of Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment rose for the first time in seven months, from -7.2 to +1.8; well above the forecast for -6.0.

*The October reading of the UK Consumer Price Index is +0.3% on a month on month basis and +3.2% year over year; both measure are one tenth above the estimates.

*The weekly report on chain store sales from ICSC showed sales fell 0.1% on a week on week basis for the week ended November 13, but sales were up 3.4% in the week when compared to the corresponding week from a year ago. The Johnson Redbook report on the same thing is due out at 7:55am CST.

*New York Fed boss Dudley and Fed Vice chairwoman Yellen were both in the press defending the Fed’s latest move. Yellen said, among other things, that she was “not happy to see us caught up in a political debate.”

*The October reading of the Producer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CST. The headline PPI is expected to be +0.8% on a month on month basis and the Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.1%. The Treasury announcement of the net purchases in September of long-term US securities by foreign accounts, the TIC data, is due out at 8:00am CST, it is expected to be a net increase of $62.5 billion. The October reading of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due out at 8:15am CST. Production is expected to be +0.3% on a month on month basis and utilized Capacity is forecast to be 74.9%, or up two tenths from the month before. The November reading of the NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 9:00am CST, it is expected to rise one point on the month to 17.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 5/31/12 and 5/15/13; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*Atlanta Fed boss Lockhart is scheduled to speak about the economy at 6:15pm CST.