Monday, November 22, 2010

5 Things To Know Before Trading

Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. The Nikkei was strong with a 0.9% gain and Australia added a third of a percent. But the Hang Seng lost a third of a percent and Shanghai was down a small fraction. Europe also has a mixed performance this morning; the Dax is about unchanged on the session, but the Footsie is off by more than a half percent, while Ireland and Spain are more than one percent lower on the day. US stock futures are essentially unchanged.

*On Friday, Hong Kong announced additional stamp duties on properties that are sold within two years and raised down payment requirements on high end homes. Earlier today the government announced that Hong Kong property prices were up 15% in the period from January to September; these prices were up thirty percent in 2009. There is some thinking that the tougher measures will have an immediate effect on transaction volume and estimates say the decline could be as much as 30% to 50% in the next few months. This pressured the Hang Seng property index in Monday’s trade and it fell 2.6%.

*Irish PM Cowen finally relented to EU/IMF pressure on Sunday and requested an aid package that may total as much at EU95 billion, details are still being worked out. The Irish government concession that aid would be necessary was seen as a humiliation for Cowen, with the country’s press stressing the coming austerity and some lawmakers calling for the PM’s resignation. Ruling coalition member, the Green Party, says they will quit the government after the budget and seek a new election as early as January. EU spokespersons such as Juncker say the decision was important to avoid credit market contagion, and yield spreads to German debt has narrowed in the wake of the announcement. But Moody’s says that a “multi-notch” downgrade for Ireland was a likely scenario. Additional help will come from the UK in the form of a bi-lateral loan, “to reflect the fact that we don’t want to be part of a permanent bailout mechanism for the euro” said Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne.

*The October reading of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due out at 7:30am CST, it is expected to be -0.30; it was -0.58 in September.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 2/15/18 and 11/15/20; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CDT.

*The Treasury plans to sell $35 billion 2 Year Notes today; the results of the auction will be announced just after noon CST.

*Minneapolis Fed boss Kocherlakota is scheduled to speak at 12:30pm CST; his topic is “Monetary Policy, Labor Markets and Uncertainty”.


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