Tuesday, November 16, 2010

5 Things To Know Before Trading

Stocks in Asian trade had varied results. Australia managed a quarter percent gain, but the Nikkei lost a third of a percent, the Hang Seng fell 1.4% and Shanghai was down four percent. Shanghai has now fallen more than nine percent from a seven month high mark set four days ago; concerns about additional tightening by the PBOC and rumors that authorities will institute price controls to keep a lid on inflation have weighed on the market. European indexes are broadly weaker this morning as debt concerns continue to be a factor. The Footsie is currently off by 1.5% and the Dax is down three quarters of a percent. US stock futures are down about two thirds of a percent.

*The Reserve Bank of Australia says that their recent tightening was “prudent” because of a shift in the balance of risks and because of what they see as a “gradual upward trend” in inflation over the medium term, according to the minutes from their November policy meeting. On the other had they see consumers as cautious and say retail discounting has been extensive. But the outlook for their resource industries is “very strong”.

*Foreign Direct Investment in China was up 7.9% on a year over year basis in October, to $7.66 billion. This was an up tick from the 6.1% annualized gain seen the month before, but was below the 10.4% estimate for October.

*The September reading of Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index was -0.9%, a decline that was almost double the estimate.

*The November reading of Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment rose for the first time in seven months, from -7.2 to +1.8; well above the forecast for -6.0.

*The October reading of the UK Consumer Price Index is +0.3% on a month on month basis and +3.2% year over year; both measure are one tenth above the estimates.

*The weekly report on chain store sales from ICSC showed sales fell 0.1% on a week on week basis for the week ended November 13, but sales were up 3.4% in the week when compared to the corresponding week from a year ago. The Johnson Redbook report on the same thing is due out at 7:55am CST.

*New York Fed boss Dudley and Fed Vice chairwoman Yellen were both in the press defending the Fed’s latest move. Yellen said, among other things, that she was “not happy to see us caught up in a political debate.”

*The October reading of the Producer Price Index is due out at 7:30am CST. The headline PPI is expected to be +0.8% on a month on month basis and the Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.1%. The Treasury announcement of the net purchases in September of long-term US securities by foreign accounts, the TIC data, is due out at 8:00am CST, it is expected to be a net increase of $62.5 billion. The October reading of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due out at 8:15am CST. Production is expected to be +0.3% on a month on month basis and utilized Capacity is forecast to be 74.9%, or up two tenths from the month before. The November reading of the NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 9:00am CST, it is expected to rise one point on the month to 17.

*The Fed is scheduled to buy Treasuries today that are due to mature between 5/31/12 and 5/15/13; the results of the operation will be announced just after 10:00am CST.

*Atlanta Fed boss Lockhart is scheduled to speak about the economy at 6:15pm CST.

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