Wednesday, November 10, 2010

3 Things to Know Before Trading

*Stocks were mixed in Asian trade. The Nikkei was strong with a 1.4% gain, but the Hang Seng and Australia were both down 0.85% and Shanghai was off by two thirds of a percent. European indexes are generally lower on the day; the Footsie is lower by about a half percent and the Dax is down 0.3%. US stock futures are essentially unchanged on the session.

*The People’s Bank of China announced today that as of November 16 it will raise the commercial bank reserve requirement by 50 basis points.

*The October reading of China’s Balance of Trade was a surplus that was a couple billion more than forecast at $27.15 billion; up sharply from the $16.88 billion surplus seen the month before.

*The October reading of Japanese Consumer Confidence Index fell a few tenths to 41.4, a result that was better than the 40.8 forecast.

*The October reading of Germany’s Wholesale Price Index was -0.3%, after two consecutive months of readings that were at one percent or more.

*The Bank of England says it is likely that the CPI will be below its target rate in 2013, but that there is upside risk, according to the Quarterly Inflation Report. They note that there is a “wider than usual” range of views on the policy committee in regards to growth and inflation, leading them to say the outlook is “highly uncertain”. In discussing the report BOE boss Mervyn King said that the economy began to recover in the last year but the level of output in the UK is likely to remain weak, in part because of the risk that consumer spending will slow.

*US mortgage applications were up 5.8% in the week ended November 5, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; both indexes, for purchase and Refi, were up about that amount.

*The weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims will be released today, Wednesday, at 7:30am CST instead of tomorrow because of the Federal Veterans Day holiday; Claims are expected to be 450k. The September reading of the US Balance of Trade is due out at 7:30am and is forecast to be a deficit of $45.0 billion. The October reading of the Import Price Index is the third bit of data that will be out at 7:30am, it is expected to rise 1.2% on a month on month basis. The Treasury will release its Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00pm CST, it is forecast to show a deficit of $140.0 billion, down from the year ago deficit of $176.4 billion.

*The weekly report on energy inventories is due out at 9:30am CST. Stocks of Crude Oil are forecast to increase 1.5 million barrels, but Gasoline inventories are expected to fall 1.0 million and the estimate for Distillates is -2.0 million.

*The Treasury plans to sell $16 billion 30 Year Bonds today, the results of the auction will be announced just after noon CST.

*The Fed is scheduled to announce the consolidated calendar of Treasury purchases at 1:00pm CST. The calendar will be for about one month of buying for both the QE2 and MBS reinvestments.





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